A project with a scheduled completion date of June 1, 2022 uses Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the output, what is the earliest expected completion date at the P75 confidence level?

A project with a scheduled completion date of June 1, 2022 uses Monte Carlo simulation. Based on the output, what is the earliest expected completion date at the P75 confidence level?

• A. 5/1/2022
• B. 6/1/2022
• C. 10/1/2022
• D. 12/1/2022

Answer: (C)

Monte Carlo results use a distribution of possible project finish dates. The P75 value is the date by which 75% of the simulated finishes occur, meaning there is a 75% probability the project will be complete on or before that date. With a scheduled finish of June 1, 2022, the simulation shows that the 75th percentile falls on October 1, 2022. That makes October 1 the earliest date you can claim a 75% level of confidence in finishing the project. The earlier dates (May or June) would imply a higher than 75% chance of finishing sooner, which isn’t what the P75 result indicates, while later dates would also satisfy the 75% threshold but aren’t the first date at that percentile.

Monte Carlo results use a distribution of possible project finish dates. The P75 value is the date by which 75% of the simulated finishes occur, meaning there is a 75% probability the project will be complete on or before that date.

With a scheduled finish of June 1, 2022, the simulation shows that the 75th percentile falls on October 1, 2022. That makes October 1 the earliest date you can claim a 75% level of confidence in finishing the project. The earlier dates (May or June) would imply a higher than 75% chance of finishing sooner, which isn’t what the P75 result indicates, while later dates would also satisfy the 75% threshold but aren’t the first date at that percentile.